It's hard to know what the Vance proposal costs because we don't know how much is refundable.
The two big issues on the CTC are always the same:
1) How refundable will it be.
2) Will it have any kind of income phase out.
The "ideal" Democratic CTC is probably something like what Tim Waltz did in MN. Fully refundable and income phased out starting at $35,000 a household! You're basically talking about a cash welfare program for ghetto baby mamas at that point.
The GOP benefits tend to be less refundable and universal. Vance says he doesn't want an income fade out. In an idea world the GOP would probably make it scale with income and target the middle to UMC married households (GOP voters).
Here is my own take on what should pass:
Harris CTC = $160B
Payroll Taxes = $1,500B
Refund employee FICA for two kid households and employee + employer (15.3%) for 3+ kid households.
Median Family of Four $107,000 = ~$8,000 FICA Employer, $16,000 total
Median of five would get $9,000+ (Harris) and $16,000 (GOP) for $25,000 total. Now that's a CTC!
In 2022, 40% households with children.
14,444 One Child (43%,17%) - $255B
12,472 Two Children (37%,15%) - $220B * 50% = $110B
7,008 Three Children (20%,8%) - $125B * 100% + $125B
It's hard to know what the Vance proposal costs because we don't know how much is refundable.
The two big issues on the CTC are always the same:
1) How refundable will it be.
2) Will it have any kind of income phase out.
The "ideal" Democratic CTC is probably something like what Tim Waltz did in MN. Fully refundable and income phased out starting at $35,000 a household! You're basically talking about a cash welfare program for ghetto baby mamas at that point.
The GOP benefits tend to be less refundable and universal. Vance says he doesn't want an income fade out. In an idea world the GOP would probably make it scale with income and target the middle to UMC married households (GOP voters).
Here is my own take on what should pass:
Harris CTC = $160B
Payroll Taxes = $1,500B
Refund employee FICA for two kid households and employee + employer (15.3%) for 3+ kid households.
Median Family of Four $107,000 = ~$8,000 FICA Employer, $16,000 total
Median of five would get $9,000+ (Harris) and $16,000 (GOP) for $25,000 total. Now that's a CTC!
In 2022, 40% households with children.
14,444 One Child (43%,17%) - $255B
12,472 Two Children (37%,15%) - $220B * 50% = $110B
7,008 Three Children (20%,8%) - $125B * 100% + $125B
$110B + $125B + $5B (remove Harris income cap) = $240B
$160B + $240B = $400B
Pay for with:
SS taxes over 400k (Dem proposal)
Full Repeal SALT (GOP, but could be DEM)
Full Repeal Mortage Interest (GOP, but could be DEM)
$400k SS = $110B
SALT = $210B
MORTGAGE INTEREST = $80B
Total = $400B
Revenue = $400B
Cost = $400B